From the perspective of medium- and long-term energy transformation, the energy security situation facing my country is extremely complex and severe."Complex" refers to the interweaving of "new" and "old" factors that affect energy security, while "severe" refers to the increasingly frequent increase in frequency, deepening degree and increased suddenness (unpredictability). In addition, the impact of geopolitics, climate change and energy transformation has been superimposed and mutually strengthened, and the impact on energy supply and energy prices has increased and the duration has been extended.

Extreme weather is becoming an important factor affecting the supply of electricity during peak summer. The Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief Committee, the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the relevant departments shall6The national natural disaster risk situation was discussed in the month and found that6In the month, many places across the country entered the main flood season, and some areas may face the risk of floods, waterfalls, winds and hail disasters, and there may be1A typhoon landed.

It should be clear that coping with the conventional and cyclical supply tension of peak summer is"General Operation". At the energy security level, conventional supply tensions should be distinguished from energy supply interruptions caused by extreme conditions such as extreme weather and natural disasters.

Improve technical flexibility to cope with extreme weather challenges

Extreme weather caused by climate change is becoming a new and lasting risk factor affecting global energy security.

The robustness of traditional energy systems is mainly aimed at various external and internal shocks with high frequency, medium and low impacts, excluding extreme weather."Low frequency, high impact" events. However, as extreme climate events tend to become "normal", improving the stability of my country's energy system means enhancing the stable supply capacity of energy infrastructure under frequent extreme weather (floods, extreme colds, hurricanes, etc.). Specific measures include: in-depth analysis of the characteristics and differences in the degree of impact of various extreme weathers; propose reasonable and feasible technical solutions from the aspects of materials, construction and technical specifications, and achieve basic stability of energy supply in extreme weathers; weighing between technical feasibility and economic feasibility, and optimizing the robustness of the system.

In recent years, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaics with volatility characteristics in power systems has been increasing. When the proportion of this power exceeds a certain threshold (for example,15%) When the system needs to significantly improve flexibility to adapt to the output characteristics of new energy. Therefore, improving the resilience of energy systems has also become a top priority. The resilience of the energy system is reflected in all aspects of the production, transportation and use of energy and electricity, and includes at least six elements: robustness, redundancy, technical flexibility, system decentralization, institutional and mechanism flexibility and energy security risk grading management system.

The flexibility of power system is an important source of resilience in the future, and the technical flexibility of the energy system needs to be comprehensively improved from the production, transportation network and user links. On the one hand, we must fully tap the flexibility potential of the existing power system, including accelerating the construction of pumped storage power plants, promoting the flexibility transformation of coal-electric units, adding heat storage devices for cogeneration power plants, and optimizing or adding adjacent power grid connection lines. On the other hand, we must fully integrate a large number of new flexible resources such as renewable energy producers, electric vehicles and user-side energy storage facilities, microgrids, distributed energy systems, etc., and promote the transformation of the power system architecture from a large-scale centralized control system to a locally balanced distributed system. This means that users also need to prepare for extreme weather and cannot rely entirely on large power grids. In fact, relying solely on large power grids to deal with extreme weather may not be the best choice, as the losses are high and the recovery costs are also high.

Improve mechanism flexibility and let market signals work

To improve mechanism flexibility means to let the market mechanism play a role and release sufficient supply and demand signals. This is the most important basis and prerequisite. Those non-market mechanism-based responses can be used to solve a small number of energy security and supply stability issues that market mechanisms cannot handle in extreme cases.

The market mechanism is not only an effective allocation method for the energy market, but also a flexible means to deal with energy shocks. exist2021During the European energy crisis in 2018, the rise in electricity and gas prices actually played an important role in smoothing out market volatility. Against the backdrop of frequent extreme weather and accelerated energy transformation, market mechanisms are one of the most important factors that constitute the resilience of energy systems. It incentivizes investment in technical flexibility, robustness and redundant capacity, thereby enhancing energy system resilience.

The key to improving the flexibility of my country's power system mechanism lies in the reform of the power supervision system and the construction of the power market. This includes accelerating the construction of the spot power market and auxiliary service market from the pilot to the whole country as soon as possible; coordinating the spot power market and cancellingThe issue of sustainable development of wind power and photovoltaic power after "subsidy"; through regulatory reform and the construction of relevant market mechanisms, distributed energy producers and users, energy storage, microgrids, distributed energy systems, etc. become contributors to the flexibility of the power system, etc. from a mechanism perspective.

If we rely on non-market mechanisms to solve normalized stable supply and energy security problems, we will find that it will be more difficult to deal with and the cost of paying will be higher and higher. In the past, our country was accustomed to using administrative means."Control" all links of the industrial chain to deal with the impact of energy security. Whenever the peak of electricity consumption in summer and the peak of heating in winter comes, relevant departments usually use administrative means to dispatch various resources to ensure supply. This energy supply guarantee mechanism has a reasonable side, and it also encounters some problems: when market signals are difficult to show the energy supply and demand situation, the importance of different times, locations and users is difficult to reflect, which will lead to resource scheduling (incremental costs) to fully guarantee all demand, or when demand must be reduced, it is difficult to ensure scientific and effective priority of energy supply. This rigid "supply guarantee" mechanism has high hidden costs, and the more severe the energy impact, the higher the cost of coping.

my country's economic development history shows that the relaxation of water prices, meat prices and grain prices has not caused people's concerns. If you are worried that promoting the marketization of electricity prices will have an impact on certain groups, transfer payments can be made through mechanisms, but the price mechanism should not lose its function of reflecting real supply and demand.

Priority is given to system transformation and setting up a risk hierarchical management system

The core and key to the current energy transformation is the transformation of energy systems. If energy transformation is understood only as a change in the energy structure, that is, the increase and decrease of the proportion of fossil energy and non-fossil energy, it is likely to have an adverse impact on policies and practices. Some policies tend to increase the proportion and scale of renewable energy as soon as possible in the short term, and ignore the importance of system transformation. This method is not conducive to efficiently promote energy transformation and carbon reduction, and can easily lead toThe situation of "carbon for carbon, storage for storage, hydrogen for hydrogen."

In the past, we have grown through renewable energy scale"Forcing" the energy system to "adjust" and thus promote energy transformation. At present, my country's energy transformation has entered a new stage, and it is necessary to provide greater space for the development of renewable energy by promoting the transformation of energy systems. Without adaptive changes in energy systems, especially power systems, the existing energy systems will have quite limited room for renewable energy development.

The position of energy system transformation in policy should be given priority over scale expansion, because the difficulty and time cost of system transformation are much higher than scale expansion. This is not only a technical issue, but also a complex systematic project involving institutional mechanisms, interest distribution and business model innovation.

This does not mean that there is no need for large-scale development of renewable energy, but emphasizes that simple scale expansion methods will bring more problems. The development methods must be adjusted according to the development stage and large-scale development should be driven through systematic transformation. In both short-term emergency response and long-term transformation, both should be based on systematic thinking and efficiency principles, taking into account universal services and high-quality development.

With the increase in sources of energy security risks, the increase in impact and frequent sudden impacts, the passive risk management method that increases system redundancy will inevitably face problems such as a significant increase in costs and poor management results. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an energy security risk grading management system based on the type of security risk, the degree of impact and the response costs.

It should be emphasized that the risk hierarchical management system is aimed at major and low-probability energy security shocks, rather than a plan to deal with conventional cyclical peak summers. It is recommended to establish a flexible and effective energy security risk grading management system from the following four aspects: First, classify and classify the consequences of energy shocks based on the type of energy security risk and the resilience of energy systems; Second, analyze the technical, time and recovery degree of energy systems to restore the energy system to various equilibrium states under different energy shocks; Third, analyze and mobilize various resources to make the energy system"Back to" the cost of different equilibrium states; fourth, establish mechanisms and standards for judging the priority of the value of different energy users when an energy shock occurs, including economic and social values.